It was at that point panic set in on the face of our plucky contender. He may have known a bit about science. He may have known that Nobel Prizes are awarded for scientific endeavours. He may even have been aware of the work of Ernest Rutherford. In that moment under the spotlight, however, he was unable to assimilate all of these pieces of information into a coherent response, so when pressed for an answer all he could come up with was “Railway”.*

I’ve been thinking a lot about the concept of tipping points when it comes to our beloved club over the last few weeks, and exactly where we stand on a number of issues. Turning to Wikipedia for a definition of a ‘Tipping Point’, I found the following:

In sociology, a tipping point is a point in time when a group — or many group members – rapidly and dramatically changes behaviour by widely adopting a previously rare practice.

The idea of a tipping point being reached at Villa came for me when the prices for our Champions League games were announced. It’s been impossible not to be fully invested in this fantastic team we currently have, with the leadership of Unai Emery transforming our club in less than two years from relegation candidates to Champions League entrants.

Our players seemed to reach their own tipping point with Unai’s appointment – rapidly and dramatically changing their behaviour by adopting the previously rare practice of winning football matches. At that point it never occurred to me that I wouldn’t be able to take my family to see the journey to its conclusion. Champions League nights at Villa Park would be our reward for semi-final defeats by League Two opposition, record-breaking lows in our relegation season, three years of Championship football alongside all the other disappointments that go back even further.

Even when the seeds of my current discontent were being sown with the loss of the Holte Suite, the gradual removal of benefits for season ticket holders, the creeping incursion of General Admission+ tickets into all areas of the ground I was, probably selfishly, still able to hold my nose and think well, that’s part of the price of success. I was even inclined to think that the cancellation of the much-needed expansion of the North Stand was connected to a longer-term goal to consolidate our place back at the top table.

But then it came – to watch four home Champions League games this season, we now have to find an extra £1,000 to attend as a family. On top of all of the other increases this season, and with the backdrop of a cost-of-living crisis that has seen household bills go through the roof, we just can’t do it. We’ve reached our personal tipping point, and I wonder how many people are in the same position – that point when a group change from being regular match-goers to losing the habit, potentially altogether.

So what was the catalyst for this particular tipping point? Enter stage left our veritable tipping point machine, Chris Heck. Lots has already been said and written about the influence he exerts, the extent to which he is enacting the wishes of our so-far excellent owners, and the undeniable need Aston Villa have to increase revenue stream dramatically if we are to consistently challenge for the highest honours. What needs looking at, though, is the sheer number of bonds he seems willing to break in this pursuit.

Over the last year and a half lots of very good, long-term staff have left Villa, people who are well-known and liked by supporters. Subsequently we’ve had the absolute farce that has been entry to the ground and the state of the concourses at the first few home games this season.

Whether this is coincidental is impossible to say, but for an institution like a football club the loss of people who understand its history and support is a big problem. The appropriation of the phrase ‘Up The Villa!’ as a marketing tool is no replacement for people who understand what the club has to do to maintain a good relationship with its core support.

And then there is the direct, irrefutable evidence of the contempt supporter groups are now held in. Again, over the last few months it has been impossible to ignore the tipping points that members of our Fan Advisory Board have reached. Starting with the non-consultation over the badge changes, through the removal of supporter benefits, outrageous price hikes and the blanket imposition of a ticketing system singularly designed for the benefit of the club and not fans, the relationship with supporters seems to be at an all-time low.

In the book The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference, Malcolm Gladwell outlines what he called the Law of the Few and states “The success of any kind of social epidemic is heavily dependent on the involvement of people with a particular and rare set of social gifts.”

He goes on to outline the three agents of change, the types of people who can successfully influence the adoption of new practice. These people are described as:

Connectors – People who “link us up with the world…people with a special gift for bringing the world together.” They are “a handful of people with a truly extraordinary knack [… for] making friends and acquaintances.”

Mavens – Information specialists, or “people we rely upon to connect us with new information.” They accumulate knowledge, especially about the marketplace, and know how to share it with others.

Salesmen – These are “persuaders”, charismatic people with powerful negotiation skills. They tend to have an indefinable trait that goes beyond what they say, which makes others want to agree with them

So far, I think it’s fair to say we haven’t seen much evidence of Mr Heck being a Connector – he certainly hasn’t made too many friends or acquaintances amongst our support.

Maybe, then, he is a Maven and is able to understand information about the marketplace that is too complex for us mere mortals. It’s a possibility, I suppose, except the evidence so far is that there is an absolute misunderstanding of the marketplace Villa operate in. Price points set at levels even London clubs would raise their eyes at, and an expectation that we are going to be able to attract casual fans in the kinds of numbers that clubs who have won dozens of trophies since our last pot in 1996 get. All this in a city whose council has recently announced bankruptcy, and which contains several of the poorest wards in the country.

I suppose, therefore, we might be at least able to say he is a Salesman. Certainly the commercial deals with Betano and Adidas seem massive improvements on what has come before. We have to ask, though, would these companies have been queuing up were it not for the on-pitch success brought by the team?

It’s a far easier sell when you have the global exposure of matches against some of the biggest clubs in the world in the forthcoming season. It’s also hard to be convinced of the success of a salesman who is overseeing the lowest crowds we’ve had since getting promoted – there might be more money coming in overall, but the product isn’t selling in the numbers it should be.

Of course, everything here is just the opinion of one person. There will be plenty of people for whom the tipping point is nowhere near arriving – after all, we are playing Bayern Munich this week rather than Barnsley and are again at the top end of the Premier League.

There may well be those youngsters who don’t support Villa yet, but reach their own tipping point on Wednesday night when they see our boys backed by a rapturous Villa Park vanquishing one of the world’s true super-clubs and choose (or is it that they will be chosen?) to join our claret and blue ranks for life.

Maybe at that point we will have to hold up our hands and admit that Chris Heck got it right, and that he is ultimately responsible for Villa going over the tipping point into becoming a European super-power once again. I’m just worried that we have the equivalent of someone in charge of commercial operations who thinks that you can be awarded a Nobel Prize for Railway.