Richard Keeling comments on the latest Astonian happenings.
If you had told me two years or more ago that we were about to embark on a Europa League campaign and that we stand a decent chance of finishing in the top eight of the Premier League, I would have been delighted.
The last three months have been a strange time though; first there was the disaster at Old Trafford, when we shot ourselves in the foot, with the help of the referee, when a draw would have seen us in the Champions’ League again. Next, we incurred a fine for breaching PSR rules and finally we have done very little to strengthen the squad ready for the coming season. So there has definitely been a feeling of anticlimax, for me at least.
Meanwhile, the champions Liverpool have so far spent £291 million this summer, Chelsea have spent £197 million, Arsenal have spent £195 million, Manchester City have spent £147 million, Manchester United have spent £137 million and Tottenham have spent £122 million.
So the traditional ‘big six’ clubs dominate the spending, with the transfer window set to close on September 1st. You need to keep spending in the Premier League just to stand still, so it is going to require a big effort from Villa this coming season to improve on last season’s sixth position.
The UEFA fine has also done little to lift my mood over the last few weeks. We were stung for €11 million for breaching both their spending limits in terms of losses over a three-year period and the Squad Cost Ratio (SCR), which limits how much a club can spend on wages, transfer fees and other relevant recruitment funds compared to its revenue.
Villa also faces a suspended sentence: a fine of €15 million if we fail to comply with the rules. That presumably accounts for our extremely quiet pre-season in the transfer market, though we are reportedly confident that we will be able to strengthen the squad without further infringements.
Or does it account for our lack of transfer business? A minority stake in the club of around 21% was acquired in December 2023 by the private equity group Atairos, who are slowly increasing their influence, with their stake now standing at around 31%. The mere mention of private equity sets alarm bells ringing for me as such groups are often described as corporate raiders or pirates. They are involved in many sectors of the economy, even schools and care homes. All too often their strategy is to load a business with debt, cut it to the bone, make shedloads of money then walk away. Unsurprisingly, I believe the concept of private equity was dreamed up in the land of cowboys.
I am always uneasy about private equity involvement in any area of business and particularly when it involves Aston Villa. The presence of Atairos may help to raise further capital over and above what Sawiris and Edens are prepared to put in but the group’s intentions are not clear, to me at least, even though their website states reassuringly: “We provide a unique combination of active, strategic partnership and patient, long-term capital to high-potential companies and their management teams.”
My scepticism was not eased when I read back in April of an ‘internal crisis’ involving Villa’s Director of Football Operations, Damian Vidagany and the two Atairos appointees to the board, Michael Angelakis and Sarah Watterson. Supposedly Vidagany is first and foremost a people person but the Atairos staff are focussd on numbers and measurements.
Those of us who remember 1970s Villa had our fill of boardroom disagreements at that time and the last thing the club needs now, after its amazing progress over the last seven years, is a return to wrangling and infighting. Chris Heck was never very popular with the fans but I wonder if it is a coincidence that he left soon after the arrival on the scene of Atairos.
Let’s hope that the lack of transfer business has nothing to do with boardroom disagreements and everything to do with the Profit and Sustainability regulations. These rules are ostensibly meant to guard against clubs going bust if their owners walk away but in practice it feels as though the football establishment does not want challenger clubs to dislodge the regular trophy winners.
We have seen how difficult it is for promoted clubs to establish themselves in the Premier League and they are often relegated after one season. The Villa held on by the skin of our teeth after our promotion, despite spending a huge amount on squad strengthening. The rules mean that the more money you turn over, the more you are allowed to spend and the Premier League has become like a society which discourages new members.
The clubs which have enjoyed regular success have also formed an elite which does the same thing. The whole setup seems most unhealthy to me and there must surely be a distinct possibility that ambitious owners like
ours will sell up if the regulations cause them to hit a glass ceiling whereby they feel that they have achieved all that they can. Fingers crossed that that won’t happen.
Changes could be on the way though – possibly. According to the BBC website recently: “Football fans have hailed a ‘historic moment’ for English football after a bill to establish an independent football regulator became law.” The regulator’s job will be to oversee men’s football in the top five divisions.
I reckon he or she is going to have a really tough job coping with a Premier League which has spent thirty-three years largely looking after itself. The attempts of the regulator to do the job while being fought every inch of the way may be a more entertaining aspect of Premier League football over the next few seasons than following a competition which is stitched up for the benefit of a handful of wealthy clubs.
The Villa management seems to be reasonably happy with the pre-season so far. Results in the USA didn’t get the pulse racing, but at this stage results are not the be all and end all. The opening Premier League game against Newcastle, another ambitious club which feels its hands are tied, is likely to be more instructive.
Then we will soon be into the Europa League fixtures – and what a good omen it is that Palace have been thrown out in view of our awful recent record against them – unless they manage a successful appeal of course.
During this strangely quiet summer we have so far at least managed to hang on to the key players in our squad, despite persistent rumours that some of them will soon be on their way. We were never going to be able to afford to keep Rashford, Asensio or Disasi, but taking them on loan was a gamble that nearly paid off. I hope the likes of Martinez, Watkins and Rogers will still be with us for the new season.
The England women (I can’t bring myself to call them Lionesses) did brilliantly to become European champions again but I am afraid their exploits largely passed me by. One thing is for sure: this strange, quiet time for us Villa fans will definitely come to an end in the next few days.