Will we qualify for the CL?

[cdbearsfan]

Forest are still in the cup, not Bournemouth. I think Chelsea winning the Conference League would only free up a place in the Conference League if:

1. Newcastle qualify for Champions League or Europa League so that the Conference League spot they earned by winning the League Cup is passed on to the league.

2. Chelsea finish in the exact position that would otherwise have earned said Conference League spot.

If we don't win a cup, and barring a very unlikely scenario of Arsenal winning the Champions League and finishing outside the top five and/or Man U/Tottenham winning the Europa League and finishing 5th, the lowest league spot that could qualify us for Europe would be 9th... if:

1. England gets additional Champions League spot (pretty much guaranteed)
2. The FA Cup winners finish in the top seven
3. Newcastle finish in the top seven
4. Chelsea finish eighth
5. Chelsea win Conference League

Not impossible but unlikely Chelsea drop that far. Realistic chance of 8th being good enough to qualify and 7th is more likely than not.

[Drummond]

Forest, of course.

Interesting permutations nonetheless.

[Dave]

We're essentially four points away. Newcastle win their game in hand and it's basically five. Presuming City don't get points deducted, which would obviously change everything, I'd say we need to beat both Newcastle and City, plus win six from eight. That might be enough. It's a big ask, but doable.

Yeah, that feels about right. I think that ultimately the Newcastle parallels that were there at the start are going to follow us to the end of the season. They were similarly inconsistent, couldn't put a run together then pulled out a decent run in the last ten games to pull themselves much higher but just not close enough.

A Man City points deduction could easily be the difference one way or the other. Without it they've probably still got enough to stay ahead of us, so it relies on both of Newcastle and Chelsea to fall away. The latter feels pretty plausible, but harder to see both happening.

Forest feel too far ahead, but winning tomorrow would definitely start to put the willies up them a bit and hopefully start the "we've blown it" posts like we had on here at a similar point last season.

[PaulWinch again]

I think it’s a pretty massive ask and probably relies on us winning pretty much all our games, specifically those against the teams we’re competing with.

[Somniloquism]

No losses, 6 wins should do it. Those wins need to be 2-3 goals in the plus column each match just to be sure.

[ChicagoLion]

i think we are a couple of missed chances away from doing it. We needed a few more results to go our way but Newcastle Forest and Chelsea all won this week.

[DB]

I think it’s a pretty massive ask and probably relies on us winning pretty much all our games, specifically those against the teams we’re competing with.

That’s the opportunity though, beat those around us. We have already seen off Brighton, bring on The others….

[Rigadon]

With a full squad and a fit Kamara, we can beat anybody (and I mean anybody) in the world.  I think we could win all of our remaining games.

[Brazilian Villain]

With a full squad and a fit Kamara, we can beat anybody (and I mean anybody) in the world.  I think we could win all of our remaining games.

No need to be greedy, I'd settle for draws away to PSG and Real Madrid.

[VillaTim]

i did watch Barcelona the other night and i know teams have off days but i really wasn't that impressed by them.

[Mellin]

We're essentially four points away. Newcastle win their game in hand and it's basically five. Presuming City don't get points deducted, which would obviously change everything, I'd say we need to beat both Newcastle and City, plus win six from eight. That might be enough. It's a big ask, but doable.

Yeah, that feels about right. I think that ultimately the Newcastle parallels that were there at the start are going to follow us to the end of the season. They were similarly inconsistent, couldn't put a run together then pulled out a decent run in the last ten games to pull themselves much higher but just not close enough.

A Man City points deduction could easily be the difference one way or the other. Without it they've probably still got enough to stay ahead of us, so it relies on both of Newcastle and Chelsea to fall away. The latter feels pretty plausible, but harder to see both happening.

Forest feel too far ahead, but winning tomorrow would definitely start to put the willies up them a bit and hopefully start the "we've blown it" posts like we had on here at a similar point last season.

Newcastle's a good point. I remember last season looking at Newcastle and United and thinking we'd be alright even if we shat the bed a little. It was only really Spurs who were a genuine threat.

We're in a similar position to the former two this year. Ultimately, I still think we have too much to do. 10% chance maybe. City points deduction would be most welcome. Only need one to wobble to catch them then. Two feels a stretch.

[Dick Edwards]

I think we’ll need five wins out of our remaining games, with two of those wins crucially being against Man City and Newcastle. A massive ask but if we can retain a fully fit squad I wouldn’t write us off

[Somniloquism]

i did watch Barcelona the other night and i know teams have off days but i really wasn't that impressed by them.

That was their third game in 6 days.

[Smithy]

We've won 6 on the bounce in all competitions, and the last three by 3 goals to nil.

If anyone is coming into form at the right time, it's us.  Add in the return of Pau, Onana, and Barkley, and we also have room to rotate properly and not force players into doing 95+ minutes three times a week as the games start coming thick and fast.

It can obviously change quickly, but right now, if I were an impartial observer, I'd be looking at us as the dark horses timing their run just about right...

Beat Forest, and to quote Emi from last season, "I'm a believer mate!"

[Footy-Vill]

I think we’ll need five wins out of our remaining games, with two of those wins crucially being against Man City and Newcastle. A massive ask but if we can retain a fully fit squad I wouldn’t write us off

Yes also do factor in Newcastle h vs Chelsea have to play 10th May .
Will play Bournemouth away that day but there will be dropped points for at least one of Newcastle and Chelsea then.