Champions League

[Demitri_C]

No country protection  so you just know if we get through to final 16 we get liverpool and the 2nd leg will be at anfield. Its written in stars

[LeeB]

No country protection  so you just know if we get through to final 16 we get liverpool and the 2nd leg will be at anfield. Its written in stars

Not if we finish in the top 8.

[itbrvilla]

I think 8th will need 17 points. 2 more than the model predicted.

I don’t. Next two rounds have lots of teams in the top 12 playing each other. Not everyone can get maximum points.

Someone on Reddit modelled the worst case scenario and puts 8th pace on 18 point.

[Dave]

According to the boffins with their laptops, apparently the probability at this point is:

19 pts - 100%
18 pts - 99.9%
17 pts - 98%
16 pts - 64%
15 pts - 11%

Although when it started they had 16 points being enough in 98% of cases. So with how the matches have played out so far, it's increased the likely number of points needed. So 17 now feels quite plausible.

[Meanwood Villa]

It would be awful to get an English team in RO16. Obviously it would be great to be in RO16 full stop so all these things are relative but you know what I mean.

[Meanwood Villa]

I can't quite believe we're in a great position to be in top 8 though. Whatever the ups and downs of this season, the CL campaign has been mostly brilliant.

[Somniloquism]

According to the boffins with their laptops, apparently the probability at this point is:

19 pts - 100%
18 pts - 99.9%
17 pts - 98%
16 pts - 64%
15 pts - 11%

Although when it started they had 16 points being enough in 98% of cases. So with how the matches have played out so far, it's increased the likely number of points needed. So 17 now feels quite plausible.

It will be interesting how that changes after tonight's games if several of the matches end as a draw or if there is a standout winner in them.

[Demitri_C]

No country protection  so you just know if we get through to final 16 we get liverpool and the 2nd leg will be at anfield. Its written in stars

Not if we finish in the top 8.

Fingers crossed mate

[Mellin]

Didn't realise Dortmund were playing Barca. Sod the draw. Stick one of them below us.

[john e]

Regardless of personal prejudices what are the best results for us in the games tonight
I can’t be arsed or capable of working it out

[Mellin]

I think an Arsenal - Monaco draw and one of Dortmund or Barca to win keeps us in fourth. Other than that it's just mid to lower table shit like Man City, Milan and Juventus.

[john e]

I think an Arsenal - Monaco draw and one of Dortmund or Barca to win keeps us in fourth. Other than that it's just mid to lower table shit like Man City, Milan and Juventus.

Ok thanks

[cdbearsfan]

Basically all the results from earlier and current scores are bad.

[Demitri_C]

Think prefer juve win and that at least puts massive pressure on them

[Brazilian Villain]

An Arsenal win wouldn't be disastrous as they have 2 easyish games left. Munich and AC Milan could easily win their last 2 as well.

The good news is Lille still have to go away to Liverpool, Brest are home to Real, and Leverkusen and Atlético still have to play each other. It just feels unlikely atm that 16 points would be enough.