Ollie Watkins

[eamonn]

Watkins is like your knees. You take 'em for granted but will miss them/him when they're/he's gone.

[Ian.]

I'm not hating on the man, and I'm not reluctant to share the gratitude I feel for his efforts. But he should have scored a goal that he balloned yesterday.

But if we're going on "should", he probably shouldn't have scored the really good goal that his movement, instinct and technique meant that he actually did score.

I love Ollie and Mings, both fantastic players and both inspiring players, however Mings should have got closer to the man with the goal and Ollie probably should have done better with the lob. However they both still had brilliant games and the reason we didn’t lose.

[ozzjim]

People can like Watkins and still hold a belief that he should be on 14-15 league goals this season, and we could easily have 6-8 more points had he put away some chances a "world class" forward would have gobbled up. It's not black and white. He's a terrific player, his work rate is exceptional and he's benefited by having a manager that has put some very good structures in that create spaces he exploits very well. I think the margin for error this season is much thinner due to our defensive frailty and us not being as creative as we were last season , so this misses are magnified.

The challenge he and Emery have now is how to dovetail him and Duran. Watkins exploits wide space very well and could be very, very productive wide of Duran in a front 3.

[Drummond]

These things just aren't binary, there are so many other factors that can affect how well someone is playing. Every striker misses chances, just as every keeper concedes goals. I think there are too many people prepared to criticise when we don't win games.

Watkins will no doubt have been watched more and more closely by opposition teams trying to counter his effectiveness. They will want to push him further away from goal because he's not as good at it as when he's using instinct.amd finishing.

The team aren't giving him the same opportunities they were last season either.

[Russ aka Big Nose]

I'm not hating on the man, and I'm not reluctant to share the gratitude I feel for his efforts. But he should have scored a goal that he balloned yesterday.

But if we're going on "should", he probably shouldn't have scored the really good goal that his movement, instinct and technique meant that he actually did score.

I love Ollie and Mings, both fantastic players and both inspiring players, however Mings should have got closer to the man with the goal and Ollie probably should have done better with the lob. However they both still had brilliant games and the reason we didn’t lose.

Wrong thread (maybe) but Havertz was Konsa's man to watch/cover. This season, I think Konsa's form has dipped. He has a tendancy to be drawn to the ball and fails to spot players finding space - often by holding their run - as per the West Ham goal in the Cup.

[Somniloquism]

These things just aren't binary, there are so many other factors that can affect how well someone is playing. Every striker misses chances, just as every keeper concedes goals. I think there are too many people prepared to criticise when we don't win games.

Watkins will no doubt have been watched more and more closely by opposition teams trying to counter his effectiveness. They will want to push him further away from goal because he's not as good at it as when he's using instinct.amd finishing.

The team aren't giving him the same opportunities they were last season either.

We aren't creating them either. Tielemans is a great passer of the ball at times, but he doesn't have the understanding of the passes to Watkins like Luiz had. We also haven't had the attacking play from the rest of the team we had last season which created more for Watkins as well. We all love Duran but look how many of his goals had to come from himself just being chaotic and how many from team play.

[Somniloquism]

Wrong thread (maybe) but Havertz was Konsa's man to watch/cover. This season, I think Konsa's form has dipped. He has a tendancy to be drawn to the ball and fails to spot players finding space - often by holding their run - as per the West Ham goal in the Cup.

Defences don't work like that though. Sometimes you have a man, but other times you do have to go with someone else who has made a run or go to the obvious dangerous space to try to cut out a cross. I'm not stating he hasn't made mistakes, just that I understand the movement he made but the cross was just behind him. A lot of other times and he has cut it out with no acknowledgment because it is expected.

[ozzjim]

We aren't as free flowing for sure, but you go back through the big ones he's missed and he should - and I think Ollie would say this - have 4-5 more this season than he has. He's earned that expectation though by being so good last season up to March April time.

Duran is so valuable because he can create things for himself. That's what makes him so different, and why he'll plug our PSR gaps come the summer.

[aj2k77]

Watkins xg for this season in the league is 9.62 lol. He's not missing bags of sitters that other strikers gobble up. The downturn in results has been mostly defensively, we've conceded 5 goals more than expected, which is probably 4/5 pts. In other words, 4th.

[eamonn]

How does that xG reconcile with the big chances missed number? Pretty sure MOTD showed a graphic where he was top and it was higher than 10.

I think Ollie is harshly judged - people annoyed that he didn't score one in the first half when Partey threw the ball to him...I mean, he had a lot to do!

[Somniloquism]

Apparently the big chances missed is if the person has the chance to shoot and then doesn't.

A big chance opportunity when the player does not get a shot away, typically given for big chance attempts where the player shooting completely misses the ball (air shot) but can also be given when the player has a big chance opportunity to shoot and decides not to, resulting in no attempt occurring in that attack.

So with no shot, xG might not be affected. I'm wondering if it is a case of running into the box, doing a drag back instead of a shot and the defender gets the foot in as well counting. Watkins has had an air shot or two, but not 19. And considering who is second and third, I expect it isn't as damming as it sounds at first.

1.Watkins 19
2. Haaland 18
3. Salah 14

[eamonn]

Interesting, ta. Could be a range of factors for these, I guess - successful block from a defender/ waiting for the cavalry to arrive as there is open space for a better positioned player to shoot/trying to make a better angle for himself/lack of confidence/slowness in getting the shot away.

[MorrisNielson]

Watkins up to 80 goals in his Villa career. Quite a poignant figure, overtakes Gary Shaw’s 79.
Now into the top 25 league & cup scorers of all time.
Next in his sights are Ray Graydon on 81 & Brian Little on 82.

[Russ aka Big Nose]

Wrong thread (maybe) but Havertz was Konsa's man to watch/cover. This season, I think Konsa's form has dipped. He has a tendancy to be drawn to the ball and fails to spot players finding space - often by holding their run - as per the West Ham goal in the Cup.

Defences don't work like that though. Sometimes you have a man, but other times you do have to go with someone else who has made a run or go to the obvious dangerous space to try to cut out a cross. I'm not stating he hasn't made mistakes, just that I understand the movement he made but the cross was just behind him. A lot of other times and he has cut it out with no acknowledgment because it is expected.

I could have been clearer - I didn't mean Konsa should be picking up Havertz throughout the game.

Obviously, defenders 'pass on' players to teammates. Though when the ball is wide left (our defensive right), Cash should be looking to prevent the cross coming in and Konsa should be alert to any threat at the near post/middle of the goal. The other CB (Mings) should be roughly in line with the back post so he can attack a ball cut back towards the penalty spot or lifted to the back post area.

IMO on the Havertz goal and the one against West Ham, Konsa retreats towards goal too much and is not alert to the space he leaves for a pullback pass that was finished on both occasions. 

[Dave P]

Watkins is like your knees. You take 'em for granted but will miss them/him when they're/he's gone.

And it they stop performing like you'd like, then my god you moan at them and give them stick but you try living without them.