Ollie Watkins

[Ian.]

I can’t remember who, but I called it out, as did others. It was on the match thread after the game. I know tempers are a little high and it’s frustrating, but no excuse for that.

[john e]

I can’t remember who, but I called it out, as did others. It was on the match thread after the game. I know tempers are a little high and it’s frustrating, but no excuse for that.

Ok fair enough
I didn’t read the match thread

[Abbeyfealeavfc]

I can’t remember who, but I called it out, as did others. It was on the match thread after the game. I know tempers are a little high and it’s frustrating, but no excuse for that.

I don't bother reading match threads, but anything commented on there can't be excused by "tempers are a little high and frustrating". Anything written is a considered comment that takes time to write and re-read before posting. It's not the same as people attending football matches and responding instinctively to the action.
There's no excuse for a comment like that and certainly not regarding any of our current players, who are in the main an honest bunch unlike those that got us relegated. 

[Somniloquism]

I don't bother reading match threads, but anything commented on there can't be excused by "tempers are a little high and frustrating". Anything written is a considered comment that takes time to write and re-read before posting. It's not the same as people attending football matches and responding instinctively to the action.
There's no excuse for a comment like that and certainly not regarding any of our current players, who are in the main an honest bunch unlike those that got us relegated.

Shows you don't read the match threads, especially after the odd occasions we score. I would take it as "tempers are a little high and frustrating" and the people posting on there are treating the board as being in the crowd so type out what they might have just exclaimed without thinking.

It was straight after the last minute chance he put over the bar. TBH it was a tough chance and he didn't need to shout wanker but I accept the match thread will have these snap decisions. It is the ones who might post those types of things in the post-match who should be called out more.

[olaftab]

Top strikers usually need 4-5 attempts per goal. For some reason Ollie gets pelters for it, Salah who is having an amazing season is running at 4 attempts per goal, Haaland is at 5. Strikers also run in and out of form, Ollie isn't quite on it but it's hardly unique, Haaland is 4 league goals in 3 months and those were against powerhouses Leicester, Saints, Palace and Brighton.

Stats on shot conversion rate so far this  season to back up your post. Ollie 18%, Wood 32%, Isak 23%, Haaland 18%, Solanke 15%, Salah 24%. Ollie was also around 18% last season however this stat does  not take into account the chances fluffed when striker makes a poor decision to either not take a shot or fails to deal adequately with a scoring opportunity.

[Somniloquism]

Which applies equally to them all.

If you look at the BBC list, imagine if Semanyo was playing for us.

74 shots, 7% conversion rate, 27% shot accuracy. Definitely going for quantity of chances over quality of them.

[pauliewalnuts]

I was watching one of the football progs the other day (may have been MOTD) and caught the last milliseconds of them showing a graphic of shots on target this season, and we were third or fourth bottom.

I may have imagined this.

[paul_e]

I was watching one of the football progs the other day (may have been MOTD) and caught the last milliseconds of them showing a graphic of shots on target this season, and we were third or fourth bottom.

I may have imagined this.

According to here - https://www.whoscored.com/Regions/252/Tournaments/2/Seasons/10316/Stages/23400/TeamStatistics/England-Premier-League-2024-2025

14th on number of shots
15th for shots on target
11th for goals scored
7th for xG
4th for xG per shot

So we're not getting enough shots away and we're not hitting the target enough or scoring enough goals but we are creating good quality chances.

[Somniloquism]

Ollie and Duran are decent for hitting the target with their shots, Rogers is woeful though although most of his are long range aiming for the top bin or the corners so slightly off hit and it goes wide / over.

[PaulWinch again]

Woeful is a stretch, did you not see his goal last night?

[Somniloquism]

Woeful is a stretch, did you not see his goal last night?

Woeful as in the top 20 scorers this season, only him and Semanyo have shot accuracies below 30%. The next lowest is 37% whist the average of all the others look to be mid-high 40's.

But when he does get them on target (10), he will probably score BECAUSE he is always aiming top bin or in the corners. If he was hitting 50% on target like Duran and Watkins, he would be on double figures I reckon if the conversion was the same.

[Percy McCarthy]

Watkins first 19 league games

23/24
1673 minutes
9 goals
6 assist
185 minutes per goal
111 minutes per goal contribution

24/25
1280 minutes
8 goals
4 assists
160 minutes per goal
106 minutes per goal contribution

[edgysatsuma89]

What a wanker!

[Rory]

Watkins first 19 league games

23/24
1673 minutes
9 goals
6 assist
185 minutes per goal
111 minutes per goal contribution

24/25
1280 minutes
8 goals
4 assists
160 minutes per goal
106 minutes per goal contribution

Assuming it's all correct (which I'm sure it is) that's some good stat'ing, Perce. Nice job!

[Mellin]

That's a good stat and thanks for sharing.

The counter argument is that his XG is -3.85, which is massive. The only other player to have scored 8 or more this season (12 players) with worst than -1.11 is, weirdly enough, Haaland @ -2.61. For reference, Duran is +2.04. He has 0 assists though, which all backs up the perceived strengths and weaknesses of them both.

I love Watkins and he's a very good centre forward, but the above reflects what we're seeing with our eyes. That is, he's missing big chances, and it's costing us games. It's not just him though, as we're -7.13 as a collective (which makes us a pretty shambolic -9.17 without Duran). Those goals turn losses into draws and draws into wins. Where would an extra 9 goals put us in the league? Fifth at absolute worst. Possibly higher.

I think the actual football is fine. It's the shit goals we're conceding and simple chances we're missing. We're syle over substance this season and it needs sorting.