Ollie Watkins

[German James]

I’ve just had a look at some stats, and I’ll take it with a pinch of salt, but his XG is 0.58 which puts him at 7.6 goals this year. That says to me he’s slightly outperforming versus quality of chance. That feels about right as well, 8 goals in 19 games when he hasn’t started recently is pretty bloody decent. Any forward averaging better than a goal every 3 games is doing pretty well.

Yes... But what's the point if he's not able to score the winner against Brighton?

[German James]

He's due a run of goals from open play now and I expect him to crack on with it against Lesta.

That would be nice.

[PaulWinch again]

I’ve just had a look at some stats, and I’ll take it with a pinch of salt, but his XG is 0.58 which puts him at 7.6 goals this year. That says to me he’s slightly outperforming versus quality of chance. That feels about right as well, 8 goals in 19 games when he hasn’t started recently is pretty bloody decent. Any forward averaging better than a goal every 3 games is doing pretty well.

Yes... But what's the point if he's not able to score the winner against Brighton?

Well I’d make the case that he scored and contributed to what should have been the winner. We can’t just keep conceding goals upon goals upon goals - much more frequently than our peers - and conclude it’s the forwards fault for not scoring more.

[Monty]

It's not just the missing chances, it's the general sense of indecision when he gets the ball in the box. Which is a shame, as he did his busywork stuff really well last night (lost count of the number of times he spun his defender to win a ball over the top).

[Abbeyfealeavfc]

Some Villa fans can't handle us having a striker who scores and assists as many goals as Ollie does. They've seen it on the television with other teams having goalscorers, but the Villa actually having one! Surely not, that can't be right
If the defence had done their job last night, we'd be celebrating a Villa win this morning on the back of an Ollie goal and assist.
I'd dread to think where we'd be over the recent years, without Ollie's goal contributions. Still I suppose if you're not a fan, counting his goal misses (eeyore style) rather than his actual goals will provide justification for you.
If scoring PL goals was that easy, why aren't we all doing it?
Keep up the good work Ollie! The PL goalscoring record for Aston Villa is there for the taking. UTV!

[PeterWithesShin]

Top strikers usually need 4-5 attempts per goal. For some reason Ollie gets pelters for it, Salah who is having an amazing season is running at 4 attempts per goal, Haaland is at 5. Strikers also run in and out of form, Ollie isn't quite on it but it's hardly unique, Haaland is 4 league goals in 3 months and those were against powerhouses Leicester, Saints, Palace and Brighton.

[Simon Page]

Watch any other striker, anywhere in the world, for four years and with the attention to detail you do with Watkins. Then play spot the difference in terms of chances missed, perceived weaknesses and value to the side. If you still manage to find against Watkins, you chose to watch Harry Kane.

[ez]

It's not just the missing chances, it's the general sense of indecision when he gets the ball in the box. Which is a shame, as he did his busywork stuff really well last night (lost count of the number of times he spun his defender to win a ball over the top).

Agree with this. He delays his shot one touch too many and it gets blocked. I just wish he'd put his laces through it.

[LeeB]

It's not just the missing chances, it's the general sense of indecision when he gets the ball in the box. Which is a shame, as he did his busywork stuff really well last night (lost count of the number of times he spun his defender to win a ball over the top).

Agree with this. He delays his shot one touch too many and it gets blocked. I just wish he'd put his laces through it.

When he does that it goes straight at the keeper.

I've absolutely no confidence watching him when he gets a chance. The drop off in him and Bailey has killed us this season.

[edgysatsuma89]

It's not just the missing chances, it's the general sense of indecision when he gets the ball in the box. Which is a shame, as he did his busywork stuff really well last night (lost count of the number of times he spun his defender to win a ball over the top).

Agree with this. He delays his shot one touch too many and it gets blocked. I just wish he'd put his laces through it.

I think it's one of the reasons people prefer Duran, you rarely see indecision from him and it just makes you feel more confident in what he is doing.

[paul_e]

Top strikers usually need 4-5 attempts per goal. For some reason Ollie gets pelters for it, Salah who is having an amazing season is running at 4 attempts per goal, Haaland is at 5. Strikers also run in and out of form, Ollie isn't quite on it but it's hardly unique, Haaland is 4 league goals in 3 months and those were against powerhouses Leicester, Saints, Palace and Brighton.

Yep, exactly right, a 'conversion rate' above 20% is generally seen as impressive and 25% is into true world class territory. Ollie has always been around 17-18% for us but makes up for it with his assists.

It's not just the missing chances, it's the general sense of indecision when he gets the ball in the box. Which is a shame, as he did his busywork stuff really well last night (lost count of the number of times he spun his defender to win a ball over the top).

That's a confidence thing, watch footage of him when he's scored 3-4 games in a row and all of that indecision goes away. He's a player who totally relies on that and when it's not there he over thinks his chances.

[Rudy Can't Fail]

Catch 22: If Watkins didn't miss his sitters would the defence be under such pressure? Overall he's limited, brilliant at finding the space, average at best finishing the opportunities he's given. For me right now Duran in the last few weeks has put a shift in and would be first choice between the two.

If Ollie didn't miss a few chances we consider 'easier', then he wouldn't still be here.  He'd have gone a couple of years ago, for huge money.  Because everything else about his game is elite level.  If his touch was slightly better, and his finishing slightly more instinctive, he'd have been a £100m player two summers ago. 

He is what he is, an excellent forward for a team challenging for European places, who'll score a decent number of goals, help create a decent number more, and also work his arse off while doing it.   We're very lucky to have him.

It's also true he squandered a couple of excellent chances that could have wrapped up the game last night, despite having a goal and an assist.  I don't think it's unfair to criticise him for missing chances while also acknowledging everything else he does well.

If we were talking about last season, I would agree with you, Smithy. Can we have that version of Watkins back please? I certainly have no pleasure upsetting his Dad on here* but he's scored two goals from open play since the end of September. Our game is built around him and maybe that's the problem as somebody pointed out, as a team we are struggling for goals and at this rate we're going to continue to struggle.


*Only japing, Paul

[Ian.]

I have no problems with constructive criticism but calling a player like Ollie a wanker is not right.

He’s a bloody good pro, who’s had to work hard through the leagues. He hasn’t started at a big club like how so many do now. To think he was playing in The Great Western League once and to see him now makes me proud he’s ours. That’s quite a journey he’s had.

[Clampy]

Yeah, totally uncalled for.

[john e]

I have no problems with constructive criticism but calling a player like Ollie a wanker is not right.

He’s a bloody good pro, who’s had to work hard through the leagues. He hasn’t started at a big club like how so many do now. To think he was playing in The Great Western League once and to see him now makes me proud he’s ours. That’s quite a journey he’s had.

Who called him that